Background High 1-hour plasma glucose (1-h PG) level has been proposed by the International Diabetes Federation to identify high-risk individuals and diagnose type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). In a longitudinal cohort, we examined T2DM risk, β-cell function, and the genetic and lifestyle effects associated with the high 1-h PG.
Methods We analyzed 6,588 participants without baseline T2DM from a community-based prospective cohort in Korea. Participants underwent biennial 2-hour 75-g oral glucose tolerance tests over 14 years. We assessed incident T2DM risk across 1-h PG groups: <155, 155–208, and ≥209 mg/dL. T2DM polygenic risk scores (PRS) were stratified into low (1st quintile), intermediate (2nd–4th quintiles), and high (5th quintile). Lifestyle was evaluated using Life’s Essential 8.
Results Compared to the <155 mg/dL group, hazard ratios for T2DM were 3.34 (95% confidence interval [CI], 2.99 to 3.74; P<0.001) for 155–208 mg/dL, and 6.81 (95% CI, 5.81 to 7.98; P<0.001) for ≥209 mg/dL. Both groups had lower baseline disposition index compared to the <155 mg/dL group (57.3% and 72.7%, respectively; both P<0.001). Higher T2DM PRS was associated with elevated baseline 1-h PG (low: 131 mg/dL, intermediate: 141 mg/dL, high: 151 mg/dL) and faster increase in 1-h PG (1.36 vs. 1.85 vs. 2.21 mg/dL/year; all P<0.001). Importantly, healthy lifestyle attenuated the increase in rate across all PRS groups.
Conclusion High 1-h PG predicts T2DM risk and is associated with β-cell dysfunction. The 1-h PG level is influenced by genetic risk and can be modified with a healthy lifestyle.
Ningyuan Wang, Yixin Zhang, Philip Schroeder, Alicia Huerta-Chagoya, Ravi Mandla, James B. Meigs, Alisa K. Manning, Ching-Ti Liu, Josée Dupuis, Josep M. Mercader
Received June 25, 2025 Accepted October 14, 2025 Published online December 9, 2025
Background Diabetes is a multifactorial disease with significant genetic predisposition. Polygenic risk scores (PRS) have been developed to estimate an individual’s genetic risk of a disease. Traditionally, PRS utilize sex-combined genome-wide association studies (GWAS) due to the limited availability of sex-stratified summary statistics. This study explores sex-dimorphic genetic effects and evaluates the potential benefits of incorporating sex-stratified effects in PRS for type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and glycemic traits by comparing PRS performance derived from sex-combined versus sex-stratified GWAS.
Methods We performed a sex-heterogeneity test across sex-specific GWAS and identified nine signals with sex-dimorphic effects for T2DM. PRS[sex-combined] and PRS[sex-stratified] were developed using sex-combined and sex-stratified GWAS results for T2DM (41,444 cases and 354,539 controls), fasting glucose (n=120,595) and fasting insulin (n=98,210). We evaluated these PRS models in 8,379 participants (1,303 cases and 7,076 controls) from the Framingham Heart Study not included in the PRS derivation.
Results Our findings suggest that sex-combined PRS currently offer better predictive performance for T2DM and glycemic traits.
Conclusion These results highlight the need for larger sex-stratified studies and the optimization of sex-stratified risk models for clinical practice.
Background This study aimed to investigate the modifying effects of rare genetic variants on the risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in the context of common genetic and lifestyle factors.
Methods We conducted a comprehensive analysis of genetic and lifestyle factors associated with T2DM in a cohort of 146,284 Korean individuals. Among them, 4,603 individuals developed T2DM during the follow-up period of up to 17 years. We calculated a polygenic risk score (PRS) for T2DM and identified carriers of the rare allele I349F at SLC30A8. A Healthy Lifestyle Score (HLS) was also derived from physical activity, obesity, smoking, diet, and sodium intake levels. Using Cox proportional hazards models, we analyzed how PRS, HLS, and I349F influenced T2DM incidence.
Results Results showed that high PRS and poor lifestyle were associated with increased risk. Remarkably, I349F carriers exhibited a lower T2DM prevalence (5.7% compared to 11.7% in non-carriers) and reduced the impact of high PRS from 23.18% to 12.70%. This trend was consistent across different HLS categories, with I349F carriers displaying a lower risk of T2DM.
Conclusion The integration of common and rare genetic variants with lifestyle factors enhanced T2DM predictability in the Korean population. Our findings highlight the critical role of rare genetic variants in risk assessments and suggest that standard PRS and HLS metrics alone may be inadequate for predicting T2DM risk among carriers of such variants.
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Methods Using data from about 65,000 participants in the Taiwan Biobank (TWB), we developed a predictive model, achieving an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 90.58%. Key predictors were identified through LASSO regression within the TWB cohort and validated using over 4 million records from Taiwan’s Adult Preventive Healthcare Services (APHS) program and the UK Biobank (UKB).
Results Our analysis highlighted 13 significant predictors, including established factors like glycosylated hemoglobin (HbA1c) and blood glucose levels, and less conventionally considered variables such as peak expiratory flow. Notable differences in the effects of HbA1c levels and polygenic risk scores between the TWB and UKB cohorts were observed. Additionally, age and sex-specific impacts of these predictors, detailed through APHS data, revealed significant variances; for instance, waist circumference and diagnosed mixed hyperlipidemia showed greater impacts in younger females than in males, while effects remained uniform across male age groups.
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Methods We performed a meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies (GWAS) for GDM in Chinese women (464 cases and 1,217 controls), followed by de novo replications in an independent Chinese cohort (564 cases and 572 controls) and in silico replication in European (12,332 cases and 131,109 controls) and multi-ethnic populations (5,485 cases and 347,856 controls). A polygenic risk score (PRS) was derived based on the identified variants.
Results Using the genome-wide scan and candidate gene approaches, we identified four susceptibility loci for GDM. These included three previously reported loci for GDM and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) at MTNR1B (rs7945617, odds ratio [OR], 1.64; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.38 to 1.96), CDKAL1 (rs7754840, OR, 1.33; 95% CI, 1.13 to 1.58), and INS-IGF2-KCNQ1 (rs2237897, OR, 1.48; 95% CI, 1.23 to 1.79), as well as a novel genome-wide significant locus near TBR1-SLC4A10 (rs117781972, OR, 2.05; 95% CI, 1.61 to 2.62; Pmeta=7.6×10-9), which has not been previously reported in GWAS for T2DM or glycaemic traits. Moreover, we found that women with a high PRS (top quintile) had over threefold (95% CI, 2.30 to 4.09; Pmeta=3.1×10-14) and 71% (95% CI, 1.08 to 2.71; P=0.0220) higher risk for GDM and abnormal glucose tolerance post-pregnancy, respectively, compared to other individuals.
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