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Joshua D. Miller 1 Article
Metabolic Risk/Epidemiology
Construction of Risk Prediction Model of Type 2 Diabetic Kidney Disease Based on Deep Learning
Chuan Yun, Fangli Tang, Zhenxiu Gao, Wenjun Wang, Fang Bai, Joshua D. Miller, Huanhuan Liu, Yaujiunn Lee, Qingqing Lou
Received February 3, 2023  Accepted May 27, 2023  Published online April 30, 2024  
DOI: https://doi.org/10.4093/dmj.2023.0033    [Epub ahead of print]
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AbstractAbstract PDFPubReader   ePub   
Background
This study aimed to develop a diabetic kidney disease (DKD) prediction model using long short term memory (LSTM) neural network and evaluate its performance using accuracy, precision, recall, and area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve.
Methods
The study identified DKD risk factors through literature review and physician focus group, and collected 7 years of data from 6,040 type 2 diabetes mellitus patients based on the risk factors. Pytorch was used to build the LSTM neural network, with 70% of the data used for training and the other 30% for testing. Three models were established to examine the impact of glycosylated hemoglobin (HbA1c), systolic blood pressure (SBP), and pulse pressure (PP) variabilities on the model’s performance.
Results
The developed model achieved an accuracy of 83% and an AUC of 0.83. When the risk factor of HbA1c variability, SBP variability, or PP variability was removed one by one, the accuracy of each model was significantly lower than that of the optimal model, with an accuracy of 78% (P<0.001), 79% (P<0.001), and 81% (P<0.001), respectively. The AUC of ROC was also significantly lower for each model, with values of 0.72 (P<0.001), 0.75 (P<0.001), and 0.77 (P<0.05).
Conclusion
The developed DKD risk predictive model using LSTM neural networks demonstrated high accuracy and AUC value. When HbA1c, SBP, and PP variabilities were added to the model as featured characteristics, the model’s performance was greatly improved.

Diabetes Metab J : Diabetes & Metabolism Journal
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