This study aimed to design a simple surrogate marker (i.e., predictor) of the minimal model glucose effectiveness (S_G), namely calculated S_G (CS_G), from a short insulin-modified intravenous glucose tolerance test (IM-IVGTT), and then to apply it to study women with previous gestational diabetes mellitus (pGDM).

CS_G was designed using the stepwise model selection approach on a population of subjects (n=181) ranging from normal tolerance to type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). CS_G was then tested on a population of women with pGDM (n=57). Each subject underwent a 3-hour IM-IVGTT; women with pGDM were observed early postpartum and after a follow-up period of up to 7 years and classified as progressors (PROG) or non-progressors (NONPROG) to T2DM. The minimal model analysis provided a reference S_G.

CS_G was described as CS_G=1.06×10⁻²+5.71×10⁻²×K_G/G_peak, K_G being the mean slope (absolute value) of loge glucose in 10–25- and 25–50-minute intervals, and G_peak being the maximum of the glucose curve. Good agreement between CS_G and S_G in the general population and in the pGDM group, both at baseline and follow-up (even in PROG and NONPROG subgroups), was shown by the Bland-Altman plots (<5% observations outside limits of agreement), and by the test for equivalence (equivalence margin not higher than one standard deviation). At baseline, the PROG subgroup showed significantly lower S_G and CS_G values compared to the NONPROG subgroup (P<0.03).

CS_G is a valid S_G predictor. In the pGDM group, glucose effectiveness appeared to be impaired in women progressing to T2DM.